“A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025. However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
The 2025 Outlook
For 2025, TRREB forecasts:
- A total of 76,000 home sales in 2025, up by 12.4 per cent over 2024. Lower borrowing costs coupled with ample supply will improve affordability and prompt more buyers to move off the sidelines.
- The average selling price to reach $1,147,000, up by 2.6 per cent over 2024, for all home types combined. Price growth will be stronger for single-family homes, as compared to the well-supplied condo apartment market.
The Ipsos polling results on buying and selling intentions show:
- 28 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to buy a home in 2025. Nine per cent of these respondents are very likely to purchase a home this year. These results matched intentions for 2024.
- First-time buyers accounted for 42 per cent of intending homebuyers.
- On average, homeowners rented for 8.5 years before purchasing their first home. However, 25 per cent of homeowners said they rented for two years or less before buying.
- Intended down payments remain substantial, at an average of 28 per cent of the purchase price.
- 37 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to sell a home in 2025, with 14 per cent very likely to sell. This result was in line with 2024 polling.
- The great majority of poll respondents said that high taxes are making homeownership less affordable and if taxes continue to increase many will have to adjust their home buying intentions.